The First and Last Effect:

admin — Mon, 14 Jun 2010 07:30:28 +0000

There is a psychological concept known as the primacy and recency effect. In layman’s terms, it is the “first and last” effect. Basically, messages we hear first are stored in our long-term memory. And messages we hear later go into short-term memory and can be accessed shortly after their occurrence. Clearly, this effect will be of special importance as we get closer to Election Day.

When Senator Obama announced his candidacy, that defining moment was burned into everyone’s long-term memory. His message, who he is, and where he started from were so refreshing that people stood up and noticed—not just Democrats, but Independents and Republicans too. This impression is now stored in their long-term memory; it is the primacy effect, whether they like it or not. It has helped him go from a virtual unknown to a household name in this country. Of course, Senator McCain also announced his candidacy. But how memorable was that moment, really?

Much of what was said or has occurred since the beginning of the campaign, even if it is in our long-term memory, has faded over time. It will not have much effect on persuading voters in the voting booth, especially not those who are still undecided.

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For that, the recency effect comes into play. The media always operates largely on short-term memory; in fact, media seems to have the shortest term memory in America. But the significance of the regency effect really kicks in toward the end of the campaign.

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So, what will get those undecideds voting for Obama? It will all hang on the last week or two before the election. This is when Obama needs to shine, shine like he has never shined before. If he does, that message will be what the media captures, and what voters will take with them into the voting booth. If his message of hope and change comes through strongly at that time, the first and last effect will come together, and as he says, “turn the page” for this country.

You may read the entire academic paper on Beth’s Blog at: http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/bethroberts/gG5Xmy

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The First and Last Effect: